covid, vaccinating kids 

I鈥檒l keep this short. Given an R of 6 for delta, tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/2021/06

We鈥檇 need to vaccinate 95-98% of the population to stop that without other NPIs. This is clearly not happening.

The ethical, arguably urgent thing to do right now is to start vaccinating under 12 kids immediately.

90%+ herd immunity will be reached, but the rest on top of vaccinations WILL come from people getting the disease. Kids are less affected, but it鈥檚 still dangerous. Vaxx under 12 ASAP.

covid, vaccinating kids 

We can monitor for any potential side effects on the fly, we can鈥檛 wait for further studies proving vaccination under 12y.

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covid, vaccinating kids 

TL;DR:

Due to delta, you鈥檙e either vaccinated or you get the disease (to the level that it forces your immune system to mount sustained immune reaction) in the next few months. This includes basically all of society, incl kids.

Places with very high rates of vaccinations still see R > 1 (eg Malta with 80% fully vaxxed)

covid, vaccinating kids 

So in case of Austria I've crunched the numbers and this means more than doubling the 10k death count.

More than half of the covid deaths in Austria are still to come, because 43% of the pop does not have any vaccine, including 20% of the 65+ age group.

So assuming everyone getting infected who isn't vaccinated, and calculating with the CFRs per age group so far, this will be a difficult 2021.

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