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the risk I took was calculated but man am I bad at math 

Regarding climate change the risk model changed.

It used to be: “we have these human driven emissions that create a lot of problems but if we dial the emissions back things normalize within a few decades”

Based on newer research it is: “human emissions have a chance to tip Earth climate into a positive feedback loop, stuck at 4-5C warming from which not even zero human emissions would rescue us”

Most people don’t know yet.

the risk I took was calculated but man am I bad at math 

The latter is drastically different than the former and requires drastically more attention. The former was a mid level global crisis/challenge the latter might mean we mess up the entire planet beyond human timescales.

Plenty of people would have been fine mitigating the former scenario, but we just can’t take the risk with the latter.

It will be really hard to communicate that this is different and more urgent than climate action so far

the risk I took was calculated but man am I bad at math 

Here is the peer-reviewed article: pnas.org/content/pnas/early/20

Quoting: "Our analysis suggests that the Earth System may be approaching a planetary threshold that could lock in a continuing rapid pathway toward much hotter condition —Hothouse Earth. This pathway would be propelled by strong, intrinsic, biogeophysical feedbacks difficult to influence by human actions, a pathway that could not be reversed, steered, or substantially slowed."

the risk I took was calculated but man am I bad at math 

"Where such a threshold might be is uncertain, but it could be only decades ahead at a temperature rise of ∼2.0 °C above pre-industrial, and thus, it could be within the range of the Paris Accord temperature targets.

The impacts of a Hothouse Earth pathway on human societies would likely be massive, sometimes abrupt, and undoubtedly disruptive."

the risk I took was calculated but man am I bad at math 

pnas.org/content/pnas/suppl/20

Table S5 has the list of actions that we take to reinforce negative feedback cycles and cut back greenhouse gas emissions.

the risk I took was calculated but man am I bad at math 

@szbalint
6-9 meter scenario inaccessible is deeply sobering.

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