Most Brits probably missed this, but as a European when I follow or care about Brexit I’m in the distinct minority. Europeans generally tuned out the entire Brexit thing that was more of a curiosity to begin with and not a serious issue. We don’t even care to mention it to british expat colleagues anymore. Eu companies do contingency planning and the default assumption is no-deal. The UK govt is fighting with itself pretty much.
Brits assume the EU really wants a deal so they’ll make it work but that’s not really true.
Only 8% of EU trade goes to the UK. For the EU the integrity of the internal market is very important, without rules it would cease to exist. Uk govt is asking for the impossible, that the EU has no moral reason or economic reason to do. Brits forget that the EU is more inclined to make an example out of the UK than to bend any of it’s basic rules.
Some people think that come march next year, they’ll just negotiate an extension to the whole process and kick the can down the road for another few years.
Not likely, it needs unanimous agreement from EU countries and a lot aren’t inclined to drag this process out.
A no-deal exit is basically the only type of exit that does not need unanimous agreement from EU countries.
So why are we on this road then? Because UK politics is messed up.
Both Theresa May and Corbyn are people who ended up with a job well beyond their competence and are generally only concerned with their own survival as leaders. TM can’t heal the fractions within her party. Corbyn is a useful idiot stuck in the 1970s and probably received russian money and support.
Most british political types know that everything is way worse than remaining a part of the EU, but the way it is structured drives it towards no-deal.
In case of some no-deal scenario, some people wave it away and say that the EU would smooth over the transition and ignore the border.
That is not so. Britain would be thrown into chaos on the food, medicine, air travel and basic shipping level, and I don’t mean “logistical problems” but actual shortages and empty shelves in the stores.
The EU has been telling the UK for two years now that decisions have consequences and no amount of magical thinking can override basic things.
Basic things like: no market access without common regulations and standards and without a court to enforce and adjudicate those rules and regs.
I expect the EU to offer medical supplies out of some emergency / disaster relief package but that’s about it.
(Historically speaking, if all your neighbouring countries signed up to a common org, then you decide to quit that club, then you shittalk that club and try to leave without your dues being fully paid, that ends up badly.)
There is still a way to stop this, UK should do a second referendum on:
- stay in the EU
- common economic area (soft brexit)
- hard brexit
and then implement the one in the plurality.
@szbalint And we, the Europeans should be ask, too. Maybe we like it without the Rosinenpicker.
@szbalint "asked" of course
@szbalint I really hope this happens, but UK political gridlock gives no-deal Brexiteers the advantage - they can win just by stalling.
Our best hope is that when it gets urgent, British people realise that what you’ve said above is true and actually going to happen to them, not some hypothetical scenario. Then the balance in parliament might change enough to reach a sensible outcome.
@szbalint since article 50 doesn't actually contain any clauses that would allow the UK to cancel after having stated that they want to leave, the only options would be no-deal or a soft brexit.
What they could do is reapply, but then they wouldn't get the special treatment that they get now.
even *without* Brexit this increasingly already happens at my local supermarket - OK its only confined to some items and its not the case that Brits are going to starve but on Friday there was even a shortage of beer! (and not any sportsball or other things that would cause a spike in sales).
Possibly linked to the wider europe wide CO2 shortage, but dealing with that does still depend on cross border co-operation..
And worse you just know that many Brexiteers will not admit fault. They'll whine about Europe being spiteful, because obviously Europe should have fallen over itself to give us all the benefits of membership with none of the responsibilities because Britain is just that important. 🙄
Brexit was never going to be anything less than a mess even with a deal, without one it's just an even bigger mess
@szbalint So much truth here it kinda hurts.
@szbalint Part of me is waiting for the EU to just turn around and tell the UK to fuck off. Part of me is surprised that this hasn't happened yet...
@szbalint most Most Brits do know this.
Brexit is driven by extreme Euro-sceptics who are pushing for as hard a break as possible so they can make money from looser regulations, removal of workers rights and more tax loopholes.
There are a few people who think Britain is still a world power and other countries will be begging to work with them but mostly this is just an idea seen in the media that has been pushed by the people mentioned above to legitimise hard-brexit opinion.
Brexit & Ireland
@szbalint even the EU country which trades the most with the UK (Ireland) is being firm as hell and not letting them away with their bullshit.
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